A new report from investment firm Konvoy is lighting up the internet with a prediction that Grand Theft Auto 6 could generate a staggering $7.6 billion in revenue within its first 60 days. That includes a projected $2 billion on launch day alone—numbers that would make it the biggest entertainment launch of all time by a wide margin. But to get there, Rockstar would need to move an estimated 85 million copies in just two months, an ambitious figure that’s already drawing skepticism from analysts and fans alike.
For comparison, GTA 5 took nearly five years to cross the 100 million sales mark. It sold about 32.5 million units in its first three months—still a historic launch by any measure, but a far cry from the numbers Konvoy is forecasting for its successor. To hit 85 million in two months, GTA 6 would need to convert a massive portion of the current-gen install base almost immediately after release. That kind of saturation has never been seen before in the AAA market, and analysts are raising eyebrows at the assumption that most PS5 and Xbox Series X/S players will jump on board at full price.
Speaking of price, the forecast assumes a base retail cost of $80, reflecting the industry’s creeping shift toward premium pricing for blockbuster titles. That alone could dampen early adoption, especially among casual players. But Konvoy’s math doesn’t stop at game sales—it also factors in microtransactions, GTA+ subscriptions, and potential monetization through user-generated content. Rockstar’s increasingly aggressive push into live-service territory is clearly central to the projection, and there’s no question that GTA Online will play a major role in the financial rollout.
Still, the forecast has been described as “aggressive” by Forbes, with several analysts noting that even a flawless launch couldn’t guarantee this kind of return. It’s been nearly 12 years since GTA 5 hit consoles in September 2013, and the market has changed dramatically in the interim. Players are more fragmented, expectations are sky-high, and competitors—from Call of Duty to Fortnite—have raised the bar for both content and monetization. Rockstar’s May 2026 release window could also impact momentum, missing out on the holiday rush in exchange for breathing room—but possibly sacrificing some of the initial wave of buyers.
Konvoy’s projection has gone viral, but whether it holds water is another story. To reach $7.6 billion in two months, Rockstar would need everything to go right: a flawless launch, a global rollout with no delays, full cross-platform availability including PC, and a robust monetization model that doesn’t alienate players. Even then, it would be a stretch. But if anyone’s going to rewrite the rules of game launches, it’s probably Rockstar.
While we wait for the marketing blitz to begin, players looking to freshen up their current GTA Online experience should check out the SE Garage Discord. From custom skins to jaw-dropping car mods, it’s one of the best places to trick out your ride while we all count down to 2026.
